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In considering whether Belize should continue its present recognition of Taiwan or switch back to the Peoples Republic of China with whom it had diplomatic relations up to 1989, the Foreign Minister of Belize, Godfrey Smith, argues:

?In terms of realpolitik, it boils down to which presents the heftier cooperation package. By current calculations, give or take some tens of millions, Taiwan has the clear and unmatched lead."

"Given that China has more than 140 diplomatic allies among whom to share its economic largesse, and Taiwan a mere 25 and dwindling, let?s take our chances with Taiwan.?

We understand clearly then why Belize maintains its relations with Taiwan rather than China. The same reasons probably apply to the other three Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries, St Kitts-Nevis, St Vincent & the Grenadines and Haiti.

And, it?s easy to appreciate their position.

In the case of St Kitts-Nevis, St Vincent & the Grenadines and Belize, they have all lost their preferential place in the European Union market for bananas and sugar, or both; and aid from traditional donors, particularly the US, has dwindled.

The result has been dislocation in their work force, and a decline in income.

Taiwan preference

Certainly Belize?s Foreign Minister appears convinced that China would not provide the same level of assistance that Taiwan now does.

I suppose account is also taken of the anger of Taiwan in cases where countries break diplomatic relations and opt for China.

Some Caribbean countries still prefer to link to Taiwan's economic offer

According to reports, the Export-Import Bank of Taiwan has sued the Grenada government in a New York court for US$21 million plus interest payments for loans for several projects including a sports facility at Queen?s Park.

The loans are reported to have been made before Grenada switched its recognition to China two years ago.

Since then China has built the sports facility and, embarrassingly, for the Grenada government when a Chinese delegation joined Prime Minister Keith Mitchell for the formal opening of the facility, they were greeted to the tune of the Taiwanese national anthem.

In any event, it is obvious that the four CARICOM governments that still recognise Taiwan believe that it is in their peculiar interest to continue to do so.

Caricom divided

And since CARICOM requires its members only to coordinate their foreign policies, not to harmonize them, it appears that they will continue to be divided over China and Taiwan.

Of course, if China would guarantee the four CARICOM countries the same, or a higher, level of assistance than they now receive, it may very well be that they would end their relationship with Taiwan in favour of China.

For, as the Belize Foreign Minister puts it: ?The principle of raison d?état asserted that the national interest of the state justified whatever means were employed to further it?.

It is also possible that China and Taiwan might find it in their mutual interest to negotiate an acceptable form of reunification in which case the matter of which of the two would give more assistance becomes mute and the four CARICOM countries would have to be content with what they could each individually bargain out of China.

The China-Taiwan divide is probably the last frontier in which rivalry between external nations offers some CARICOM countries an opportunity to extract a little more on the basis of where they would tie their allegiance.

But, the reality is that it is only just ?a little more?.

A Caricom-China treaty

CARICOM countries would benefit more from a trade, aid and investment treaty with China that is collectively negotiated and that takes full account of the peculiar development needs of each of them. China would more attention to the CARICOM collective than it would to individual states.

It should not be forgotten that the reason CARICOM as a whole is negotiating an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU is that the experience of the Lome Agreement and the subsequent Cotonou Accord demonstrated the benefits of joint negotiations rather than individual pleadings.

The Dominican Republic, CARICOM?s partner in CARIFORUM, shows that it is possible to have diplomatic ties with one of the China?s and to trade with, and attract investment from, both of them.

Last year trade between the DR and China totalled US$490 million, twice as much as with Taiwan with which it has diplomatic relations.

The DR has obviously worked out a strategy for dealing with the divide of China and Taiwan and is benefiting from it. CARICOM countries need to do the same and stop hopping between the two, confusing unfortunate bandsmen in the process.