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[Odler]

Why do I feel the urge to predict the future? If I wait long enough, i.e. one month and one week, I will know like the rest of the world who will be carrying the prestigious title of soccer World Champions for the next four years.

I can?t wait. I can?t help counting the days, the hours, and the minutes (6days, 21hours, 49 minutes, as of this writing) for the ball to roll and the gladiators to charge. Next Friday, in exactly a week, at this time, the opening salvo between France and Senegal will have been fired. May the best team win?

The question is not really who is the best? But who will play best? Who will be the luckiest? Because once the ball rolls, guess what, it is round for everyone? It may hone its own fantasies.

Will France win? Statistically, the answer is no. The only country that ever won the World Cup twice in a row is Brazil in ?58 and ?62. But that Brazil had Didi, Vava, Garrincha, and? Pele. More, France has lost Robert Pires, and Thierry Henry is diminished by a knee injury. Their sunny side: El Zid (Zizou, as nicknamed by the Spanish media) is currently unstoppable. But again Zidane is not Maradona.

Will Argentina win? No. Statistically, no South American team has ever won anything outside of the Americas, except Brazil. One can argue that no European team has ever won the Cup outside of Europe either. With eight Cups for the Americas and eight for Europe, it is the opportunity for the Americas to take the lead.

The Argentines have risen to #1 among the favorites, mostly after France lost a friendly, last Saturday to Belgium. Argentina has the best, the most star-studded team, on paper. They had the most impressive qualification.

The bad for the Argentines is their first tour. They play England, Nigeria, and Sweden. It can?t be any harder than that. If (when) they win the first leg, they may be exhausted and count too many injuries. It is also to take into account the demoralizing political and economic conditions back home, where there have been four new Presidents over a few weeks, while the national currency has dropped to near the face value of toilet paper. The teams and the fans have no money.

Will Brazil win? No. Not with this team. Not with this coach. Scolari left home the top scorer, Romario, and took with him Ronaldo who spent most of the last four years on the bench or in the tribunes, with injury. Brazil has the individualities to pass the first tour. But, beyond the series of 32 and 16, a team needs more than individualities; it needs automatism and cohesion. The Brazilian side, a heteroclite collection of artists, just doesn?t have them.

Will Uruguay win? No. The winners of 1930 and 1950 are now relics. Their last noteworthy performance was in 1970 when they finished fourth. Then they faded into nothingness.

Will the winner come from Africa? No. Senegal is too weak. Nigeria and Cameroon are too naïve.

Will Asia win its first World Cup? Not in 2002. Korea, Japan, China are just not good enough to efficiently challenge the European and American powerhouses.

What about North and Central America? Not a thread of hope. The U.S team was dead last in 1998. Costa Rica is Cinderella. And the Mexicans have never reached the semifinals, despite their 12 participations out of 16 World Cups, two of them played at home.

England? Nope, the subjects of Her Majesty have not proven anything since their 1966 win at home. Their last trashing (5-1) inflicted to Germany has remained singular; nothing came after. The team is uninspired and plagued by injury.

Germany? Not a chance. The country?s performance over the last season (except Bayer Leiverkusen?s) was pale, lame, and meager.

Italy? Nope. They were superbly outclassed by Zidane, Trezeguet, and Co. during the last European final. They have not been convincing.

Spain? Nope. Best clubs in the world, but poor national track record in the Cup.

So who will win? A team has got to win. No?

(OdlerRobert Jeanlouie, Friday, May 24, 2002)