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http://www.jeanlouie.com/

March 17, 2004

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, as of last night, is officially the nominee for the Democratic party for the next presidential election. As such Kerry will be the main challenger to sitting President George W. Bush for the November general elections.

Kerry will be in the company of around a dozen of other candidates for President whom you will never hear about. Among these so-called minor candidates will be Ralph Nader, who once again, in 2004, is expected to play the spoiler in a race that will be as tight as it was four years ago. The electorate has not changed.

Since March 2, Super Tuesday, Kerry has been mathematically the nominee, but he was to wait last night?s win in Illinois to count the 2,162 needed delegates, in order to declare victory, and officially open the hostilities against Bush.

Last week a CNN-USA Today poll of likely voters favor Kerry by an 8-point margin (52-44) to win in November. This result is stunning since until three months ago, few would bet a red cent on Kerry?s prospect for the nomination. Few knew him, and Howard Dean was quietly cruising toward a coronation. Kerry came from behind, and helped by Dean?s ?I have a scream? speech, became the darling (the most likely to beat Bush) of the Democrats.

One important factor for Kerry is the fact the nine Democratic candidates manage to go through the primary process without destroying each other. It was quite a gentle campaign in which the candidates run against Bush, but not against each other. Barring Sharpton, and Kuccinich, all of them had basically the same discourse. This curious course of event made the Democratic primary into a free continuous media blast against Bush?s policies and politics.

At such pace, Kerry would be the next President, without a real tough challenge.

As of last week, the situation has changed, Bush opened his war chest garnered with $150 million, and started defining Kerry as being a flip-flap and a weak on defense. Kerry can hardly answer since he does not have the advantages that come with the White House and since has spent his last nickel during the primaries?

President Kerry? Time will tell. But, the prospect does not look good. Bad economic news will help the senator. A terrorist attack or the capture of Osama Bin Laden will propel Bush ahead in the poll.

This context may make these elections the most event-dependent ever. What happened in Spain last weekend, in the voting booths, may be premonitory?

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(OdlerRobert Jeanlouie, Wednesday, March 17, 2004)