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[jacoba2307]

Ceci est une demande d'information aux experts et à ceux qui ont placé leur épargne en GDES dans ces intitutions qui offrent 10% le mois sur ces dépots (s'il y en a qui fréquentent ce forum).

Comment cela est-il possible? Une institution reçoit des dépots en GDES et paye 10% du dépot chaque mois au déposant. Un retour de 120% par an. Comment cette institution gagne-t-elle les plus de 120% qu'il faut pour pouvoir payer l'intérêt dû au déposant?

Ce forum demande une réponse claire avec des chiffres et des examples. Il n'est pas de notre intention de répéter les rumeurs qui courent les rues de Port-au-Prince, et de dire du mal de personne. Notre curiosité est sur sa faim.

[Nane]

J'aimerais aussi avoir des informations sur ces coopératives. A ce qu'il parait, ils sont capables d'offrir de tels intérets parce qu'ils effectuent des prêts à 20-22%. Mais que savons nous de leurs méthodes et critères de prêts? Y a-t-il aucune garantie sur un investissement pareil? Avec les coopératives qui se multiplient tant, y-a-t-il moyen de connaitre leur effet sur l'économie haitienne? Si par chance ce mouvement est légitime peut-être qu'il faudrait mieux investir dans les coopératives haitiennes que dans le marché des changes americain.!?

[jacoba2307]

Il semble qu'une mission récente du FMI aurait demandé aux banques de la place de ne pas recevoir les dépots des coopératives impliquées dans le blanchiment.

L'étau se resserre.

[jacoba2307]

Chris Jarvis, a Senior Economist at the IMF wrote a paper on The Rise and Fall of the Pyramid Schemes in Albania in 2000.

The paper includes descriptions of what happened in Albania in 1996, when some institutions started offering high interest return on investments and kept raising the interest rates until the whole thing collapsed and the people who had been too gullible lost all their investments.

If anybody is interested, I could go over some of the highlights of the paper, particular the similarities with Haïti's Coopératives.

[cecile]

I was thinking of investing in those cooperatives but a lot of people talked me out of it.

[jacoba2307]

The following is quoted from a paper by Chris Jarvis, Senior Economist at the IMF. Written 2000.

" The Dynamics of a Pyramid Scheme

Pyramid schemes work on the principle that money paid in by later investors is used to pay artificially high returns to earlier investors. There are typically four stages in the life cycle of a pyramid scheme.

1) Early investors are drawn in by advertising promising high interest rates or huge capital gains after a short period. Most schemes have a gimmick, often based on some real or imagined market inefficiency or loophole in the law.

2) News of the high returns spreads by word of mouth or advertising, and more people invest. Their payments are used to pay interest and, if necessary, principal to the early investors. More often, though, the early investors will reinvest their principal, and sometimes their interest in the hope of still higher gains. Most people, however, remain skeptical.

3) With a reputation for solvency based on a good payments record, which overrides doubts about the feasibility of the scheme, many more investors come into the scheme. Some remain skeptical but invest anyway, believing that they can make a quick profit and then get out before the scheme runs into trouble. For a time, the scheme appears successful.

4) The final stage is the collapse of the scheme. The interest and principal due to the old investors exceeds the money that the scheme is able to attract from new investors. As soon as payments are interrupted, confidence in the scheme evaporates. The investors rush to get their money out, but there is little to be had. What has not been paid to the early investors in interests has usually been used to buy highly visible but often not very valuable assets to make the scheme look prosperous, or has been stolen outright by the operators. "

End of quote.

My observation in Haïti is that we are somewhere between stages 2 and 3. The rise in interest rates offered, some "coops" are already advertising 14% per month up from 10 and 12%, is a proof that they already have trouble attracting new investors.

The coops are buying flashy busses to put in public transportation, and we know that these are not very lucrative operations. They are buying food markets, very visible but thin margin assets. They just spent a huge amount of money in the carnival paying for bands and floats and stands along the carnival road.

Anybody with any good sense should stay away from those schemes. The collapse is coming. I will not venture to say when but it sure is coming.

[Salvatore Alexa]

ate: Thu, 14 Feb 2002 16:27:07 -0600 (CST)

From: Bob Corbett <CORBETRE@WEBSTER.EDU>< A>

To: Haiti mailing list <HAITI@LISTS.WEBSTER.EDU>< A>

Subject: a775: A financial disaster waiting to happen? (fwd)

From: Pierre Jean <PIERREJEAN01@YAHOO.COM>< A>

Sogebank stopped accepting deposits from Coop

On Friday, February 8, Sogebank stopped accepting

deposits from "Les Coeurs Unis", the flashiest (and

probably wealthiest) cooperative this time around. It

seems Sogebank went so far as to actually close the

accounts of that cooperative and a few others. Total

monies returned to the owners: a few million US

dollars.

In an environment where commercial banks are charging

up to 30% a year in gourdes or 16% in US dollars on

loans, some cooperatives are routinely paying to

depositors 10-12% a MONTH on their gourdes deposits

(100-144% annualized on a non-compounded basis)or 5-7%

a MONTH on their dollar deposits (60-84% annualized on

a non-compounded basis.) This means that they must be

"lending" at levels of at least 120-160% a year in

gourdes or 70-100% in US.

However, instead of lending, the majority of these

cooperatives actually deposit their funds at

commercial banks, earning no more then 14-20% a YEAR

on their gourdes deposits or 6-10% on their dollar

deposits. Clearly, something does not compute. How can

the cooperatives afford to pay out that much to their

depositors?

The fact that Sogebank has declared some cooperatives

"persona non grata" means that there is a problem.

Many people long suspected these cooperatives of money

laundering. Rumor has it that Sogebank was unable to

justify where these cooperatives were getting the

millions and was asked to close these accounts by its

US correspondent banks. All this as part of tougher

money laundering monitoring procedures.

The repercussions of such account closures are hard to

predict and quantify, but there could conceivably be a

panic movement among cooperative "members" when they

discover that their cooperative is not as kosher as

they expected it to be. If that happens, then the

entire financial system may be in for a rude shock.

The Ministry of Finance and the central Bank had

better monitor this situation closely. They have

closed their eyes on this worrisome explosion of

dubious cooperatives and may pay the consequences if

they don't step in and clean up the mess.

[jerryb]

J'ai quelques choses à apporter dans cette discussion sur les Coopératives. Tout d'abord, ces institutions ne donnent les intérêts mentionnés qu'a partir d'une certaine somme. Cela pourrait arranger les choses, car on pourrait dire que c'est de la publicité. Le problème, c'est que de nos jours en Haïti, il y a des gens qui disposent de sommes très élévés à cause de la drogue qui circulent dans le pays. On dirait que c'est un moyen de permettre aux dealers de pouvoir blanchir leur argent et de faire rentrer l'argent sale dans l'économie haïtienne.

De toute façon, on n'a qu'à voir l'attitude des parlementaires lavalassiens pour voir ce qu'il en retourne. Ces officiels ont fait avorter l'opération Ouragan menée par la DEA américaine et la PNH en haiti. Donc, il n'est plus besoin de discuter à propos de des objectifs des coopératives. Mais le problème est pour ces malheureux travailleurs qui investissent leurs avoirs dans ces institutions, car ils sont en doute et ne savent pas pendant combien de temps, le mouvement va pouvoir continuer...

Je pense que cette affaire de coopérative est vraiment un leurre. L'économie Haïtienne est au plus bas de sa forme ces derniers temps. C'est impossible que des institutions arrivent à donner entre 10

[Bon Paulo]

La drogue produit par les pays du Sud procure de l'ARGENT SALE. Mais les armes que produisent les pays industrialisés procurent de l'ARGENT PROPRE, n'est-ce pas?

Le centre (pays industrialisés) fait tourner en bourrique la périphérie (pays en voie de déeloppement).

Comble d'hilarie, des imbéciles des pays du Sud disent "amen" à toutes les prières des pays industrialisés, sans chercher à comprendre.

[Haitinow!]

Bon Paulo

La remarque est excellente. Amen indeed! Ce qui est sale est sale ,sauf que c`est beaucoup plus difficile de blanchir les assasinats politiques et les genocides.Les morts ne reviennent pas a la vie. A bientöt pour une rubrique sur les cooperatives.