Search the Web 
Subjects: 30,457 | Messages: 65,035 | Mp3s: 972 | Videos: 103 | Members: 16,832 | Online: 78 | Newest : artentarork
Haitiwebs Home english  français  register  faq  contact us
Go to Haitiwebs Chat     Register   
Calendar Search Mark Forums Read
Investissements Comment et où investir? Est-il prudent de le faire en Haiti?
Welcome to the Foire d'Opinions Haitiennes forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact contact us.
Latest Top News ::.. Deux Américains à la Chambre des députés: Edmond et Fleuriné The New York Time Editorial Published on October 12, 2008 : Help for Haiti Où est passé le Nouveau Contrat Social du groupe des 184 ? Boulos, vous nous manquez! Le Grand Sud démasqué Quatre policiers mis en isolement Les perles sont éternelles MIAMI / Un concert pour venir en aide aux sinistrés d'Haïti ! Le Marché en fer ou marché Vallières : une nouvelle catastrophe… annoncée ! La promotion socio-économique des femmes via Internet

Follow up
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)    
Old 02-07-07, 04:06 PM
Al Saqr's Avatar
Al Saqr Al Saqr is offline
Registered User
 
Posts: 2,247
Al Saqr is on a distinguished road
Exclamation Hindsight bias

Quote:
Hindsight bias, sometimes called the I-knew-it-all-along effect, is the inclination to see past events as being predictable and reasonable to expect, perhaps because they are more available than possible outcomes which did not occur. Subjects also tend to remember their own future predictions as being more accurate than they were after the fact. People are, in effect, biased by the knowledge of what has actually happened when evaluating the likelihood of what has already occurred.
Hindsight bias has been demonstrated experimentally in a variety of settings, including politics, games and medicine. Prophecy that is recorded after the fact is an example of hindsight bias, given its own rubric, as vaticinium ex eventu.
It has been shown that examining possible alternatives may reduce the effects of this bias.
I think you can easily understand now why you shouldn't use a trading system only because you backtested it.
__________________

Last edited by Al Saqr : 02-07-07 at 04:06 PM. Reason: grammar
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
Reply With Quote
Post New Thread  Follow up
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:
Advanced Search
Display Modes
Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Points Per Thread View: 2.00
Points Per Thread: 15.00
Points Per Reply: 5.00
Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Medical journal The Lancet clears Haiti report of bias bana2166 Lakay/Haitian News 0 02-12-07 07:32 PM
Lancet probes allegations of bias in Haiti by Medical Journal bana2166 Diaspora News 0 10-14-06 09:59 AM
Football expert hopping mad at CFU for format change & perceived bias against Jamaica bana2166 Soccer 1 08-22-06 03:24 PM
copyrights © 1999 - haitiwebs.com, a Virtual Haitian Community. All rights reserved.
The time now is 08:32 AM.

SEO by vBSEO 3.0.0 ©2007, Crawlability, Inc.